🏈Field Goal Probability
Αναλυτικός οδηγός σύντομα
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Field goal kicking is the most statistically consistent position in football — and yet the decision about when to attempt a kick versus punt or go for it is among the most analytically contested in the sport. In the 2022 NFL season, kickers collectively made 84.1% of all field goal attempts, but that aggregate masks enormous variance by distance: kicks from inside 30 yards are made over 95% of the time, while those from beyond 55 yards drop below 60%. Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens holds the record for both the longest field goal in NFL history (66 yards, September 2021) and the highest career field goal percentage among kickers with 100+ attempts at approximately 91.1%. The field goal probability model quantifies the likelihood of making a kick based primarily on distance, but also incorporates weather conditions (wind speed and direction dramatically affect accuracy beyond 45 yards), field surface (natural grass vs. turf has a measurable 2-3 percentage point difference in accuracy for longer kicks), dome vs. outdoor venues, temperature (cold weather below 32°F decreases accuracy 3-5%), altitude (Denver's high altitude increases kick distance and accuracy marginally), and the kicker's individual accuracy history. Coaching staffs use this probability to determine the threshold at which a field goal attempt is preferable to a punt, and at which it is better to go for it on fourth down. A 58-yard field goal with a 58% success rate is analytically inferior to a punt that pins the opponent at the 10-yard line in many field-position scenarios, while a 32-yard field goal at 96% success is almost always worth attempting in a tie game.
FG Probability = Base_Rate(distance) × Weather_Factor × Surface_Factor × Kicker_Skill_Factor Base Rate by Distance (league average): P(make) = 1 − (0.00385 × (distance − 20)) for distances 20-65 yards (Simplified linear approximation; logistic models are more accurate at extremes) Weather Factor: Wind_Penalty = max(0, (wind_speed − 10) × 0.008) per mph over 10 Crosswind is roughly 1.5x more damaging than headwind at same speed Worked Example — 47-yard FG, outdoor stadium, 15 mph crosswind, 40°F: Base Rate at 47 yards: ~74% Wind penalty (15 − 10) × 0.008 × 1.5 (crosswind) = 0.06 → 6% reduction Cold weather (40°F, above 32°F threshold): negligible penalty Adjusted probability: 74% − 6% = 68% Surface factor (natural grass): −2% → Final: 66%
- 1Determine the kick distance by adding 17 yards (7-yard snap distance + 10-yard end zone depth) to the line of scrimmage yard line — for example, a ball at the opponent's 30-yard line means a 47-yard field goal attempt.
- 2Look up the base success probability for that distance using league-wide historical data or your kicker's personal accuracy chart for that range, which may differ from league averages by 5-15 percentage points for elite or poor kickers.
- 3Apply weather adjustments: check current wind speed and direction (headwind, tailwind, or crosswind), temperature, and precipitation — crosswinds above 15 mph create the most significant accuracy reduction for any kick beyond 45 yards.
- 4Adjust for surface type and indoor/outdoor setting — dome stadiums and turf surfaces increase accuracy measurably compared to cold outdoor natural grass games, particularly for long-range attempts.
- 5Calculate the final probability and compare it to the expected value of alternative options (punting, going for it) to determine the optimal fourth-down decision.
- 6For game-critical situations, also consider the leverage of the game state — a 70% FG probability is worth attempting in a tie game with 2 minutes left but may be suboptimal in the first quarter of a 3-point game where field position risk is lower.
Tucker's historic kick was at the absolute outer range of human kicking ability — even for the greatest kicker of all time, a 66-yarder carries substantial miss probability, making the successful attempt even more remarkable.
Kicks inside 25 yards are made at near-perfect rates by all qualified NFL kickers — missing one is a major upset and nearly always results in significant coaching scrutiny.
Beyond 50 yards in harsh weather conditions, average kickers drop below 50% — teams with strong punters and poor kickers should strongly consider punting from this distance rather than risking a turnover on downs at the spot of the kick.
Denver's altitude (~5,280 feet) provides a genuine 6-10% accuracy boost on long kicks because the thinner air reduces drag — this is a real factor that visiting kickers benefit from at Empower Field.
Electrical engineers in power distribution companies use Field Goal Probability to size conductors, calculate voltage drop across long cable runs, and verify that circuit breaker ratings provide adequate protection against fault currents in residential, commercial, and industrial installations.
Sportsbooks set player proposition odds (field goal over/under makes) based on a combination of league-average distance curves and individual kicker adjustment factors, creating betting markets that sophisticated bettors analyze for edges.
Electronics design engineers apply Field Goal Probability during printed circuit board layout to determine trace widths for required current capacity, calculate impedance matching for high-speed signal traces, and verify thermal dissipation in surface-mount components under worst-case operating conditions.
NFL Draft evaluations of kicker prospects include long-range kick distance testing at the combine and pro days, specifically to project field goal probability curves at the NFL level and identify kickers with unusual leg strength.
Open circuit or infinite resistance
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
Short circuit condition
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
Reactive component dominance
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
| Distance Range | Attempts | Makes | Make % | Recommended Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 20 yards | 482 | 476 | 98.8% | Always attempt |
| 20-29 yards | 2,104 | 2,013 | 95.7% | Always attempt |
| 30-39 yards | 2,891 | 2,623 | 90.7% | Almost always attempt |
| 40-49 yards | 3,012 | 2,432 | 80.8% | Attempt with good kicker |
| 50-54 yards | 1,247 | 895 | 71.8% | Context-dependent |
| 55-59 yards | 603 | 367 | 60.9% | Model expected value |
| 60+ yards | 142 | 67 | 47.2% | Elite kicker only |
What percentage of field goals are made in the NFL?
In the context of Field Goal Probability, this depends on the specific inputs, assumptions, and goals of the user. The underlying formula provides a deterministic relationship between inputs and output, but real-world application requires interpreting the result within the broader context of engineering and electrical practice. Professionals typically cross-reference calculator output with industry benchmarks, historical data, and regulatory requirements. For the most reliable results, ensure inputs are sourced from verified data, understand which assumptions the formula makes, and consider running multiple scenarios to bracket the range of likely outcomes.
Who is the most accurate kicker in NFL history?
Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens holds the highest career field goal percentage (approximately 91.1%) among kickers with 100+ attempts, ahead of Robbie Gould (~91%) and Chris Boswell. Tucker also holds the NFL record for longest successful field goal (66 yards in 2021), making him widely considered the greatest kicker of all time.
How far is too far for an NFL field goal?
The practical maximum for most NFL kickers is around 57-60 yards, where accuracy drops below 50% for average kickers. Elite kickers like Tucker have demonstrated the ability to make 65+ yarders, but as a decision-making threshold, most teams should not attempt kicks beyond 55 yards without exceptional weather conditions and a proven long-range kicker.
Does weather really affect field goal kicking?
Yes — significantly. Studies show that crosswinds above 15 mph reduce long field goal accuracy by 8-15 percentage points. Cold weather below 20°F (−6°C) adds another 3-5% penalty. Rain alone has a smaller effect than wind, but combined conditions (cold + wind + rain) on outdoor grass can reduce accuracy by 15-20 percentage points versus the same kick in a dome.
Why does the field goal attempt start 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage?
The standard snap distance for a field goal is 7-8 yards from center to holder, plus the holder is positioned slightly behind the snapper. The end zone adds 10 yards of depth to the goal posts. This is why the total kick distance is always approximately 17 yards more than the line of scrimmage — a field goal attempted from the 30-yard line is roughly a 47-yard kick.
What is the field goal probability at exactly 50 yards?
At exactly 50 yards, league-wide accuracy from 2018-2022 was approximately 71.8%. Elite kickers make 50-yarders at 80%+, while below-average kickers may be under 60%. Weather conditions can shift this range significantly — the same kick in a dome versus in a 20 mph crosswind carries roughly a 15-20 percentage point gap.
Should a team always kick a field goal when in range?
Not always — expected points analysis shows that in many 4th-and-short situations inside the opponent's 35, going for it can produce higher expected points than a nearly certain field goal, because the 7-point touchdown opportunity so dramatically outweighs the 3-point certainty of a make. This is situation-dependent and should be modeled case-by-case.
Pro Tip
Develop a kicker-specific probability curve rather than relying solely on league averages. If your kicker is 12-for-14 on 50+ yard attempts but 8-for-12 on 40-49 yard attempts, his personal accuracy curve differs from the league average in ways that should shift your decision thresholds by 3-5 yards in each direction.
Did you know?
Tom Dempsey kicked a 63-yard field goal in 1970 with a specially made kicking shoe (he was born with a stub foot), setting the NFL record that stood for 28 years. After the kick, the NFL actually created the 'Dempsey Rule' limiting custom kicking shoes — a remarkable case of a rule being written because of a single extraordinary achievement.