詳細ガイド 近日公開
GLP-1 Weight Loss Projectionの包括的な教育ガイドを準備中です。ステップバイステップの解説、数式、実例、専門家のヒントをお届けしますので、もうしばらくお待ちください。
The GLP-1 Weight Loss Projection Calculator is a clinical estimation tool that models expected body weight reduction over time for patients taking glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, including semaglutide (marketed as Wegovy and Ozempic) and the dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist tirzepatide (marketed as Mounjaro and Zepbound). The calculator draws on published phase III clinical trial data from the STEP program (semaglutide) and the SURMOUNT program (tirzepatide) to generate week-by-week weight loss trajectories that follow an exponential decay curve, reflecting the biological reality that weight loss is rapid in the early months and progressively slows as the body approaches a new metabolic equilibrium. Historically, pharmacological weight loss interventions produced modest results of 3 to 5 percent body weight loss, which led many clinicians and payers to view anti-obesity medications as ineffective. The arrival of high-dose semaglutide 2.4 mg in 2021 and tirzepatide in 2022 fundamentally changed this landscape, delivering 15 to 22 percent mean body weight loss in clinical trials, results that approach those of bariatric surgery for the first time. This calculator helps patients, prescribers, and health economists quantify these outcomes for individual starting profiles. The projection model is used by obesity medicine specialists to set realistic expectations during the informed consent process, by patients who want a data-driven understanding of their likely trajectory, and by insurance utilization reviewers evaluating the clinical value of authorizing these medications. It also serves as a motivational tool, because patients who understand the typical weight loss curve (rapid initial loss followed by plateau around week 60 to 72) are less likely to discontinue therapy prematurely when their rate of loss slows. It is important to note that clinical trial averages mask significant individual variability. In the STEP 1 trial, approximately 32 percent of participants lost more than 20 percent of body weight on semaglutide 2.4 mg, while roughly 14 percent lost less than 5 percent. Factors including genetics, baseline insulin resistance, adherence to lifestyle modifications, and dose tolerance all influence individual outcomes. This calculator provides the population-mean trajectory as a benchmark, not a guarantee.
Projected Weight at Week t = W0 x (1 - Pmax x (1 - e^(-k x t))), where W0 is starting weight, Pmax is the maximum expected fractional weight loss for the selected drug and dose (e.g., 0.149 for semaglutide 2.4 mg, 0.208 for tirzepatide 15 mg), k is the rate constant derived from clinical trial curve fitting (approximately 0.04 to 0.06 per week), and t is the number of weeks on treatment. For a worked example: a patient starting at 240 lbs on semaglutide 2.4 mg with Pmax = 0.149 and k = 0.05, at week 40 the calculation is 240 x (1 - 0.149 x (1 - e^(-0.05 x 40))) = 240 x (1 - 0.149 x (1 - 0.1353)) = 240 x (1 - 0.149 x 0.8647) = 240 x (1 - 0.1288) = 240 x 0.8712 = 209.1 lbs, a projected loss of 30.9 lbs or 12.9 percent of body weight.
- 1Begin by entering your current body weight in pounds or kilograms. This serves as the W0 (starting weight) anchor for the entire projection model. Accurate measurement matters because a 5-pound error at baseline propagates through every projected data point. Weigh yourself in the morning after voiding, wearing minimal clothing, on a calibrated scale. If you have a recent clinical weight from a healthcare visit, that value is also acceptable.
- 2Select the specific GLP-1 medication you are taking or plan to take. The calculator supports semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy), semaglutide 1.0 mg (Ozempic, off-label for weight management), tirzepatide at 5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg (Mounjaro or Zepbound), and liraglutide 3.0 mg (Saxenda). Each medication has a distinct efficacy profile derived from its respective pivotal trials, so this selection fundamentally determines the projected trajectory.
- 3Choose your target maintenance dose. Most GLP-1 medications require a gradual dose escalation over 16 to 20 weeks before reaching the therapeutic dose. The calculator maps the dose-escalation phase separately from the maintenance phase because weight loss velocity differs during titration (when the drug is sub-therapeutic) versus maintenance. For example, semaglutide patients typically lose only 2 to 3 percent of body weight during the 16-week titration phase versus an additional 12 percent during months 4 through 16.
- 4Indicate whether you are combining the medication with a structured lifestyle intervention. Clinical trial arms that combined GLP-1 therapy with intensive lifestyle counseling (diet, exercise, and behavioral coaching) showed approximately 2 to 4 percentage points greater total body weight loss than medication-only arms. The calculator adjusts the Pmax parameter upward by a configurable factor (default 1.15, reflecting a 15 percent improvement) when lifestyle intervention is selected.
- 5Specify the projection time horizon in weeks (12 to 72). The calculator generates a week-by-week trajectory table and graph. Most patients reach approximately 80 percent of their maximum weight loss by week 40 and 95 percent by week 60. Projections beyond 72 weeks rely on limited long-term extension data and carry greater uncertainty, which the calculator flags with a confidence interval widening.
- 6Review the projected weight loss curve, which displays weekly predicted weight, cumulative percent body weight lost, and comparison benchmarks from the relevant clinical trial. The output also highlights clinically meaningful thresholds: 5 percent (minimum for clinical benefit), 10 percent (significant cardiometabolic improvement), 15 percent (approaching surgical outcomes), and 20 percent or more (exceptional response). Understanding where you are likely to fall on this spectrum helps calibrate expectations.
- 7Use the sensitivity analysis feature to explore how outcomes change if you respond better or worse than average. The calculator shows 25th percentile (below-average response), 50th percentile (median), and 75th percentile (above-average response) trajectories based on the distribution of individual results reported in clinical trials. This range helps both patients and clinicians understand the realistic spread of outcomes rather than anchoring solely on the mean.
This patient matches the STEP 1 trial profile closely. With lifestyle intervention added, the projection uses a Pmax of 0.165 (15% above the base 0.149). At 68 weeks the exponential decay curve is essentially at plateau, meaning further significant loss is unlikely without dose adjustment.
Patients with higher starting BMI often achieve greater absolute weight loss in pounds while the percentage loss remains in the expected range. The tirzepatide 15 mg dose from SURMOUNT-1 showed 22.5% mean body weight loss, and the lifestyle modifier raises this projection slightly. A loss of 72 lbs in this case brings the patient from a BMI of approximately 43 to 33.
Ozempic at the 1.0 mg dose was studied primarily for type 2 diabetes in the SUSTAIN trials, where mean weight loss was approximately 9 to 12 percent. Without structured lifestyle intervention and at the lower dose, this patient can expect roughly half the percentage loss seen with Wegovy 2.4 mg.
At 12 weeks most patients are still in the dose escalation phase and have not yet reached their therapeutic dose. The calculator accounts for this by modeling lower efficacy during titration. A 4.2 percent loss at 12 weeks is actually ahead of the dose-response curve for tirzepatide 5 mg, because early weeks include water weight and appetite suppression effects.
Obesity medicine physicians use this projection tool during the initial consultation to set evidence-based expectations with patients before prescribing a GLP-1 medication. By showing the patient a personalized curve based on their starting weight and selected drug, the clinician can explain that rapid early loss will slow over time and that a plateau does not mean the drug has stopped working. This conversation significantly improves 12-month adherence rates, which are a major challenge in obesity pharmacotherapy where dropout rates can exceed 50 percent.
Health insurance utilization management teams use weight loss projections to evaluate prior authorization requests for GLP-1 medications. Many commercial plans require documentation that a patient is expected to achieve at least 5 percent body weight loss to justify ongoing coverage. The calculator provides an evidence-based projection that can be included in the prior auth submission to demonstrate clinical necessity and expected return on the pharmacy benefit investment.
Clinical researchers and pharmaceutical companies use population-level weight loss projection models to design new trials, determine sample sizes, and benchmark novel anti-obesity agents against existing therapies. When a new molecule enters phase II testing, its early weight loss trajectory is compared against the known curves for semaglutide and tirzepatide to estimate whether it is likely to match or exceed the efficacy of approved drugs by the time a phase III trial concludes.
Patients themselves use the calculator as a self-management and motivation tool. By entering their actual weekly weight alongside the projected curve, they can see whether they are tracking at, above, or below the expected trajectory. Patients who are above-average responders gain confidence, while those tracking below average can have an informed discussion with their provider about dose optimization, adherence, or adding lifestyle modifications before deciding to switch medications.
Patients with type 2 diabetes represent a special case because insulin
Patients with type 2 diabetes represent a special case because insulin resistance and concurrent diabetes medications (particularly insulin and sulfonylureas) blunt the weight loss response to GLP-1 agonists. In the STEP 2 trial, patients with type 2 diabetes lost 9.6 percent of body weight on semaglutide 2.4 mg compared to 14.9 percent in STEP 1 which enrolled patients without diabetes. The calculator should be used with the diabetes-specific trial data for these patients, and clinicians should counsel them that their expected weight loss trajectory will be 3 to 5 percentage points lower than the general obesity population curves.
Patients who are simultaneously discontinuing other weight-affecting medications present another special case.
Those stopping antipsychotics (olanzapine, clozapine), certain antidepressants (mirtazapine, paroxetine), or corticosteroids may experience an additive weight loss effect that exceeds the calculator's projections during the first 8 to 12 weeks, followed by a normalization to the standard curve. Conversely, patients who begin insulin therapy concurrently with GLP-1 treatment may see attenuated weight loss that falls below projections.
Post-bariatric surgery patients who are starting GLP-1 therapy for weight
Post-bariatric surgery patients who are starting GLP-1 therapy for weight regain after an initial surgical response represent an increasingly common special case. Limited data from the STEP 5 extension and several retrospective studies suggest that these patients respond to GLP-1 medications but typically achieve lower percentage body weight loss (approximately 8 to 12 percent) compared to GLP-1-naive patients, possibly because their starting point already reflects a surgically reduced gastric anatomy and altered gut hormone profile.
| Medication | Dose | Trial | Duration (weeks) | Mean %BWL | Placebo %BWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semaglutide (Wegovy) | 2.4 mg weekly | STEP 1 | 68 | 14.9% | 2.4% |
| Semaglutide (Wegovy) | 2.4 mg weekly | STEP 3 (intensive lifestyle) | 68 | 16.0% | 5.7% |
| Semaglutide (Wegovy) | 2.4 mg weekly | STEP 2 (T2DM) | 68 | 9.6% | 3.4% |
| Tirzepatide (Zepbound) | 5 mg weekly | SURMOUNT-1 | 72 | 15.0% | 3.1% |
| Tirzepatide (Zepbound) | 10 mg weekly | SURMOUNT-1 | 72 | 19.5% | 3.1% |
| Tirzepatide (Zepbound) | 15 mg weekly | SURMOUNT-1 | 72 | 20.9% | 3.1% |
| Liraglutide (Saxenda) | 3.0 mg daily | SCALE Obesity | 56 | 8.0% | 2.6% |
How much weight will I actually lose on Wegovy or Zepbound?
Clinical trial averages show 14.9 percent body weight loss on semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy) over 68 weeks and 20.8 percent on tirzepatide 15 mg (Zepbound) over 72 weeks. However, these are population means and individual results vary substantially. In the STEP 1 trial, about one-third of participants lost more than 20 percent of their body weight while approximately 14 percent lost less than 5 percent. Your personal outcome depends on genetics, adherence to both medication and lifestyle changes, starting metabolic profile, and dose tolerance. The calculator shows you the average trajectory as a benchmark, with 25th and 75th percentile bands to illustrate the realistic range.
Why does weight loss slow down after a few months on GLP-1 medication?
Weight loss deceleration is a fundamental biological phenomenon called adaptive thermogenesis. As you lose weight, your body reduces its resting metabolic rate, increases hunger hormones like ghrelin, and becomes more efficient at extracting energy from food. These compensatory mechanisms evolved to protect against starvation and are the primary reason that all weight loss interventions, including surgery, show a plateau effect. GLP-1 medications partially counteract these mechanisms by maintaining appetite suppression and improving insulin sensitivity, which is why they produce sustained weight loss rather than the rapid regain seen with diet-only approaches. The plateau does not mean the drug has stopped working; it means the drug is actively maintaining your new lower weight against strong biological forces pushing toward regain.
Is tirzepatide definitively better than semaglutide for weight loss?
The SURMOUNT-1 trial showed 20.8 percent body weight loss with tirzepatide 15 mg compared to 14.9 percent with semaglutide 2.4 mg in STEP 1, which suggests a meaningful advantage. However, these were separate trials with different patient populations, not a head-to-head comparison. The SURMOUNT-5 trial, which directly compared tirzepatide 15 mg to semaglutide 2.4 mg, showed tirzepatide produced significantly greater weight loss (20.2 percent versus 13.7 percent). That said, individual response varies, some patients respond better to semaglutide, and factors like side effect tolerance, insurance coverage, and cost may be equally important in choosing between them.
Can I use this calculator if I am taking Ozempic off-label for weight loss?
Yes, but with important caveats. Ozempic is FDA-approved for type 2 diabetes, not weight management, and its maximum dose is 2.0 mg versus Wegovy's 2.4 mg. The SUSTAIN trials for Ozempic showed approximately 9 to 14 percent body weight loss depending on the dose and trial population. The calculator includes Ozempic dose options and uses the SUSTAIN trial data for projections. Be aware that off-label use may not be covered by insurance for a weight management indication, and your physician should monitor you appropriately.
What happens to the projection if I miss doses or have supply interruptions?
Missed doses reduce the effective drug exposure and slow the weight loss trajectory. A single missed weekly injection typically has minimal impact, but repeated misses or supply gaps of several weeks can stall progress and sometimes trigger partial regain. If you miss more than 2 consecutive weeks, some protocols recommend restarting at a lower dose to minimize gastrointestinal side effects upon resumption. The calculator's projection assumes consistent weekly dosing, so any interruptions will shift your actual trajectory below the projected curve.
Does starting BMI affect the percentage of weight loss?
Interestingly, clinical trial subgroup analyses show relatively consistent percentage body weight loss across starting BMI categories, though patients with higher starting BMI tend to lose slightly more in absolute terms. In the STEP 1 trial, patients with a starting BMI above 40 lost a similar percentage of body weight as those with a BMI of 30 to 35. However, patients with type 2 diabetes consistently show lower percentage weight loss (approximately 2 to 4 percentage points less) than those without diabetes, likely due to insulin-mediated resistance to weight loss.
How accurate is an exponential decay model for predicting GLP-1 weight loss?
The exponential decay model is a well-validated mathematical framework for weight loss trajectories and fits the published clinical trial curves with an R-squared value typically above 0.95. It correctly captures the rapid initial loss, gradual deceleration, and eventual plateau that characterize GLP-1 therapy. The model's main limitation is that it produces a smooth curve while real-world weight loss is noisy, with weekly fluctuations of 1 to 3 pounds due to water retention, dietary variation, and measurement error. For individual patients, the model serves as a central tendency estimate around which actual weight will fluctuate.
プロのヒント
Weigh yourself at the same time each week, ideally on the same morning after using the bathroom and before eating or drinking, wearing minimal clothing. Track the 4-week moving average rather than individual weekly readings, because water retention, sodium intake, and hormonal cycles can cause fluctuations of 2 to 5 pounds that obscure the true fat loss trend. This moving average approach lets you compare your actual trajectory against the calculator's projection with much greater accuracy.
ご存知でしたか？
The GLP-1 hormone was first identified in the gut of the Gila monster lizard (Heloderma suspectum), whose saliva contains exendin-4, a peptide that activates the GLP-1 receptor and keeps the lizard's metabolism stable despite eating only 3 to 4 times per year. This discovery by Dr. John Eng in 1992 led to the development of exenatide (Byetta), the first GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for human use, and ultimately paved the way for semaglutide and tirzepatide.