🏈QB Air Yards Analysis
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Air yards is one of the most illuminating metrics in modern NFL analytics — it measures how far downfield a pass travels through the air from the line of scrimmage to where it is caught (or, for incompletions, where it would have been caught). The metric fundamentally separates the concept of 'where the ball goes' from 'where it ends up after yards after catch,' giving analysts a precise view of how aggressively a quarterback is attacking the defense. Patrick Mahomes averaged 8.4 intended air yards per attempt in 2022, reflecting his deep-ball aggression, while a check-down-heavy QB like Andy Dalton might average 5.8 intended air yards — meaning even with similar completion percentages, Mahomes is generating yards downfield that Dalton never attempts. The concept of 'completed air yards' (air yards on caught passes only) versus 'intended air yards' (average depth of all attempts) helps distinguish QBs who complete deep balls from those who simply throw them. Air yards also introduced the important derivative metric 'yards after catch' (YAC), which equals total receiving yards minus air yards — allowing analysts to separate what the quarterback contributed versus what the receiver contributed after the ball arrived. Josh Allen's historical YAC numbers are among the highest for a QB's targets because his receivers catch short passes and turn them into big gains through broken tackles, while an air-yard-heavy QB like the Chargers' Justin Herbert generates more of his yardage through the air. NextGen Stats from the NFL tracks air yards on every play of every game, making this one of the most reliably available advanced metrics in football.
Intended Air Yards = Total air yards on all pass attempts / Total pass attempts Completed Air Yards = Total air yards on completions only / Total completions YAC (Yards After Catch) = Total Receiving Yards − Total Completed Air Yards Air Yards to the Sticks = Air Yards − Yards to First Down (Positive = pass thrown past the first down marker; Negative = thrown short) Worked Example — Patrick Mahomes, sample game: Pass 1: Completion, 15 air yards, receiver runs 8 more → 23 total yards Pass 2: Incomplete, 22 air yards (thrown deep, dropped) Pass 3: Completion, 4 air yards, receiver runs 12 more → 16 total yards Pass 4: Completion, 8 air yards, receiver runs 2 more → 10 total yards Intended Air Yards/Attempt = (15 + 22 + 4 + 8) / 4 = 12.25 Completed Air Yards/Completion = (15 + 4 + 8) / 3 = 9.0 Total YAC = (8 + 12 + 2) / 3 = 7.3 per catch
- 1Obtain air yards data from NextGen Stats (NFL.com/stats), Pro Football Focus, or Stathead, which track the precise launch point and catch/fall point of every pass using player tracking technology installed in all 30 NFL stadiums.
- 2Separate intended air yards (all attempts, including incompletions) from completed air yards (catches only) — intended air yards measures a QB's aggression while completed air yards measures where they actually succeeded downfield.
- 3Calculate average intended air yards per attempt for the period you are analyzing — this is your primary measure of how aggressively the QB is attacking downfield versus dinking and dunking with check-downs.
- 4Compute yards after catch (YAC) by subtracting completed air yards from total receiving yards — high YAC relative to completed air yards suggests receivers are doing significant work after the catch, which may inflate the QB's yardage totals.
- 5Calculate air yards to the sticks (ADOT minus depth-of-target for first down distance) to understand how often the QB is throwing past the first-down marker versus settling for short completions that require more YAC to move the chains.
- 6Compare the QB's air yards profile against league averages and historical comparisons to understand scheme context — some offenses are schemed around short quick passes with YAC expectations (West Coast), while others rely on vertical routes (deep-ball systems like 2018 Rams with McVay and Goff).
Mahomes attacks the defense with deep throws consistently — 8.9 intended air yards per attempt reflects aggressive downfield targeting, while significant YAC shows his receivers also create after contact.
A 3.45 intended air yards average reflects heavy use of check-downs and screens — this QB's passing yards are almost entirely created by receivers gaining yards after the catch, not from downfield throwing.
Herbert's high completed air yards relative to intended air yards shows he is completing his deep throws — a completion rate on deep balls that demonstrates genuine accuracy downfield, not just volume deep attempts.
A receiver who gains 70 of his 132 yards after the catch is a strong YAC creator — this profile fits slot receivers and RBs who catch short passes and generate big gains through broken tackles and open-field speed.
NFL teams use air yards data during the draft process to assess whether college quarterbacks can make the translation to NFL-depth throwing, identifying prospects who relied on short passes in college that may not translate to the longer-developing NFL route trees.
Fantasy football analysts use target air yards and air yards share to identify breakout wide receiver candidates — a WR whose team's air yards are redistributed toward them following another receiver's injury is a prime breakout indicator.
Sportsbooks use QB air yards tendencies to set more accurate yardage prop lines, knowing that deep-ball QBs in favorable weather will push yards totals higher while check-down QBs are more consistent but have lower upside.
Offensive coordinators use opponent QBs' air yards tendencies to design defensive coverages — a defense preparing for a deep-ball QB will deploy more over-the-top safety help, while a team facing a check-down QB can play more man coverage and blitz more aggressively.
Throwaways (intentional incompletions to avoid sacks) are counted in intended
Throwaways (intentional incompletions to avoid sacks) are counted in intended air yards calculations by some sources and excluded by others — always verify the methodology, as including throwaways significantly depresses ADOT for QBs under heavy pressure. Professional qb air yards practitioners should document their assumptions, verify boundary conditions, and consider supplementary analysis methods when the Qb Air Yards calculation encounters these non-standard conditions. Cross-validation with alternative approaches strengthens confidence in results.
Screens and draws technically have negative or zero air yards (the receiver
Screens and draws technically have negative or zero air yards (the receiver catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage) — these should be modeled separately from genuine passing attempts, as mixing them into ADOT calculations unfairly penalizes West Coast scheme QBs who use screens as designed rushing plays. Professional qb air yards practitioners should document their assumptions, verify boundary conditions, and consider supplementary analysis methods when the Qb Air Yards calculation encounters these non-standard conditions. Cross-validation with alternative approaches strengthens confidence in results.
Spiked passes (clock-stopping plays) have no meaningful air yards and should be
Spiked passes (clock-stopping plays) have no meaningful air yards and should be excluded from any average depth of target calculation — they represent game-management plays with no relationship to passing aggressiveness or accuracy. Professional qb air yards practitioners should document their assumptions, verify boundary conditions, and consider supplementary analysis methods when the Qb Air Yards calculation encounters these non-standard conditions. Cross-validation with alternative approaches strengthens confidence in results.
| Quarterback | Team | Attempts | Total IAY | IAY/Att | Completed AY% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 567 | 4,987 | 8.8 | 61.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 531 | 4,461 | 8.4 | 63.1% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 400 | 3,660 | 9.15 | 58.4% |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 521 | 4,268 | 8.2 | 60.8% |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 432 | 3,758 | 8.7 | 62.4% |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 473 | 3,515 | 7.43 | 65.9% |
What are air yards in football?
Air yards measure how far a pass travels through the air from the line of scrimmage to the point of the catch (or where an incomplete pass would have been caught). They separate what the quarterback contributes through the throw from what the receiver contributes through yards after catch, giving a cleaner view of passing aggressiveness and accuracy downfield.
What is a good air yards per attempt for an NFL quarterback?
League-wide, the average intended air yards per attempt is approximately 7.5-8.5. Aggressive deep-ball QBs like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes consistently average above 9.0, while short-passing system QBs may be in the 5.5-7.0 range. The key is comparing completed air yards to intended — QBs who complete a high percentage of their intended deep targets are genuinely elite.
What is ADOT in football stats?
ADOT stands for Average Depth of Target — it is essentially the same as intended air yards per attempt, measuring how far downfield a QB's average target is thrown. It is used interchangeably with intended air yards per attempt in most analytics contexts, though some sources define it slightly differently by including or excluding spikes and throwaways.
How do air yards relate to fantasy football?
Fantasy analysts use target air yards (total air yards targeted to a specific receiver) to identify receivers who run deeper routes and thus have higher upside per target. A WR receiving 8 air yards per target versus one receiving 4 air yards per target has vastly different ceiling potential — the deeper targets generate bigger plays when caught, boosting fantasy points significantly.
What is the difference between air yards and yards after catch?
They are complementary and sum to total receiving yards. Air yards are the portion of total yards created by the throw (how far the ball traveled), while YAC (yards after catch) is the portion created by the receiver's work after making the catch. Elite QBs generate most yards through air yards; YAC-heavy QBs rely on receivers to do more work.
Which NFL quarterbacks throw the most air yards?
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa (in 2022) consistently rank among the highest in total intended air yards — Tua's 2022 season under Mike McDaniel was particularly notable as his intended air yards jumped dramatically from his prior seasons, reflecting the scheme-dependency of the metric. Deep-ball QBs like Allen have consistently led the league in air yards thrown.
Can air yards predict future wide receiver performance?
Yes — target air yards is among the best predictors of WR ceiling and fantasy breakout potential. Receivers who receive a high proportion of their team's deep targets (high air yards share) in one season tend to maintain that role the following year if scheme and QB remain constant, making it a leading indicator of who will produce big plays.
プロのヒント
Track 'completed air yards percentage' (completed air yards / intended air yards) as a measure of deep-ball accuracy — it removes the completion percentage distortion caused by depth of target. A QB with 65% completed air yards percentage is converting a higher fraction of his downfield throws than one at 55%, and this metric is more predictive of passing efficiency than raw completion percentage for deep-throwing QBs.
ご存知でしたか？
Joe Montana, the 4-time Super Bowl champion known for his surgical accuracy, famously preferred short passes to create YAC through scheme — his estimated intended air yards per attempt in the Walsh West Coast offense would likely be among the lowest of any Hall of Fame QB, yet he holds the second-highest career passer rating (92.3) in NFL history for qualified starters from his era, proving that low air yards does not mean low efficiency.