🏈Field Goal Probability
Hva er NFL Field Goal Probability Calculator?
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Field goal sparking er den mest statistisk konsistente posisjonen i fotball - og likevel er beslutningen om når du skal forsøke et spark kontra punt eller gå for det, blant de mest analytisk omstridte i sporten. I NFL-sesongen 2022 gjorde kickere til sammen 84,1 % av alle field goal-forsøk, men det samlet maskerer enorme variasjoner etter avstand: spark fra innsiden av 30 yards gjøres over 95 % av tiden, mens spark fra over 55 yards faller under 60 %. Justin Tucker fra Baltimore Ravens har rekorden for både det lengste feltmålet i NFLs historie (66 yards, september 2021) og karrierens høyeste feltmålsprosent blant kickere med 100+ forsøk på omtrent 91,1 %. Feltmålssannsynlighetsmodellen kvantifiserer sannsynligheten for å lage et spark basert primært på avstand, men inkluderer også værforhold (vindhastighet og retning påvirker nøyaktigheten dramatisk utover 45 yards), feltoverflate (naturgress vs. torv har en målbar forskjell på 2-3 prosentpoeng i nøyaktighet for lengre spark), kuppel vs. 3-5%), høyde (Denvers høye høyde øker sparkavstanden og nøyaktigheten marginalt), og kickerens individuelle nøyaktighetshistorikk. Trenerstaber bruker denne sannsynligheten for å bestemme terskelen der et field goal-forsøk er å foretrekke fremfor et punt, og hvor det er bedre å gå for det på fjerde down. Et 58-yard field goal med en suksessrate på 58 % er analytisk dårligere enn et punt som fester motstanderen på 10-yardlinjen i mange feltposisjonsscenarier, mens et 32-yard field goal med 96 % suksess nesten alltid er verdt å forsøke i en uavgjort kamp.
Calkulon makes complex calculations simple — built for students and everyday problem-solvers.
Formel
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FG-sannsynlighet = Base_Rate(distanse) × Weather_Factor × Surface_Factor × Kicker_Skill_Factor
Grunnsats etter avstand (gjennomsnitt av liga):
P(make) = 1 − (0,00385 × (avstand − 20)) for avstander 20–65 yards
(Forenklet lineær tilnærming; logistikkmodeller er mer nøyaktige i ekstremer)
Værfaktor:
Wind_Penalty = maks(0, (vindhastighet − 10) × 0,008) per mph over 10
Sidevind er omtrent 1,5 ganger mer skadelig enn motvind ved samme hastighet
Bearbeidet eksempel — 47-yard FG, utendørs stadion, 15 mph sidevind, 40°F:
Grunnrente ved 47 yards: ~74 %
Vindstraff (15 − 10) × 0,008 × 1,5 (sidevind) = 0,06 → 6 % reduksjon
Kaldt vær (40°F, over 32°F terskel): ubetydelig straff
Justert sannsynlighet: 74 % − 6 % = 68 %
Overflatefaktor (naturgress): −2 % → Endelig: 66 %Variabelbeskrivelse
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| Symbol | Navn | Enhet | Beskrivelse |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIST | Kick Distance | yards | Distance of the field goal attempt from goal posts to line of scrimmage plus 7 yards (snap + hold). The single strongest predictor of success. |
| WF | Weather Factor | multiplier | Adjustment for wind speed and temperature. Rule of thumb: subtract ~1% success probability per mph of headwind above 10 mph; cold weather below 32°F reduces probability ~3–5%. |
| SF | Surface Factor | multiplier | Artificial turf improves kicker footing and accuracy by approximately 1–2% compared to natural grass, particularly in wet conditions. |
| KR | Kicker Rating / Historical Accuracy | % | Kicker-specific accuracy from the same distance range over the past 3 seasons, used to personalize the base conversion rate. |
| BASE | Base Conversion Rate | % | League-average NFL conversion rate at a given distance (e.g., 98% from <30 yds, 88% from 30–39, 72% from 40–49, 56% from 50–54, 40% from 55+). |
| FGP | Field Goal Probability | % | Final estimated probability: BASE × WF × SF × KR_adjustment, clamped between 0% and 100%. |
Slik NFL Field Goal Probability Calculator
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- 1Bestem sparkavstanden ved å legge til 17 yards (7 yards snapdistanse + 10 yards endesonedybde) til linjen for scrimmage yardlinje – for eksempel betyr en ball på motstanderens 30-yardlinje et 47 yards field goal-forsøk.
- 2Slå opp grunnsannsynligheten for suksess for den distansen ved å bruke historiske data for hele ligaen eller kickerens personlige nøyaktighetsdiagram for det området, som kan avvike fra ligagjennomsnittet med 5-15 prosentpoeng for elitespillere eller dårlige kickere.
- 3Bruk værjusteringer: sjekk gjeldende vindhastighet og retning (motvind, medvind eller sidevind), temperatur og nedbør – sidevind over 15 mph skaper den mest betydelige nøyaktighetsreduksjonen for ethvert spark over 45 yards.
- 4Juster for overflatetype og innendørs/utendørs setting - kuppelstadioner og gressflater øker nøyaktigheten målbart sammenlignet med kalde utendørs naturgressspill, spesielt for langdistanseforsøk.
- 5Beregn den endelige sannsynligheten og sammenlign den med den forventede verdien av alternative alternativer (pointing, go for it) for å bestemme den optimale fjerde-ned-avgjørelsen.
- 6For spillkritiske situasjoner, vurder også utnyttelsen av spilltilstanden – en 70 % FG-sannsynlighet er verdt å prøve i en uavgjort kamp med 2 minutter igjen, men kan være suboptimal i det første kvartalet av et 3-punkts spill der risikoen for feltposisjon er lavere.
Løste eksempler
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Tuckers historiske spark var på det absolutte ytre området av menneskelig sparkeevne – selv for den beste sparkeren gjennom tidene, har en 66-yarder betydelig sjanse for miss, noe som gjør det vellykkede forsøket enda mer bemerkelsesverdig.
Spark innenfor 25 yards gjøres til nesten perfekte takter av alle kvalifiserte NFL-sparkere - å savne en er en stor uro og resulterer nesten alltid i betydelig trenerkontroll.
Beyond 50 yards in harsh weather conditions, average kickers drop below 50% — teams with strong punters and poor kickers should strongly consider punting from this distance rather than risking a turnover on downs at the spot of the kick.
Denver's altitude (~5,280 feet) provides a genuine 6-10% accuracy boost on long kicks because the thinner air reduces drag — this is a real factor that visiting kickers benefit from at Empower Field.
Praktiske anvendelser
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Electrical engineers in power distribution companies use Field Goal Probability to size conductors, calculate voltage drop across long cable runs, and verify that circuit breaker ratings provide adequate protection against fault currents in residential, commercial, and industrial installations.
Sportsbooks set player proposition odds (field goal over/under makes) based on a combination of league-average distance curves and individual kicker adjustment factors, creating betting markets that sophisticated bettors analyze for edges.
Electronics design engineers apply Field Goal Probability during printed circuit board layout to determine trace widths for required current capacity, calculate impedance matching for high-speed signal traces, and verify thermal dissipation in surface-mount components under worst-case operating conditions.
NFL Draft evaluations of kicker prospects include long-range kick distance testing at the combine and pro days, specifically to project field goal probability curves at the NFL level and identify kickers with unusual leg strength.
Spesielle tilfeller
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Åpen krets eller uendelig motstand
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
Kortslutningstilstand
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
Reaktiv komponentdominans
In practice, this edge case requires careful consideration because standard assumptions may not hold. When encountering this scenario in field goal probability calculations, practitioners should verify boundary conditions, check for division-by-zero risks, and consider whether the model's assumptions remain valid under these extreme conditions.
NFL Field Goal Accuracy by Distance — 2018-2022 Combined Data
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| Distance Range | Forsøk | Makes | Make % | Recommended Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 20 yards | 482 | 476 | 98.8% | Always attempt |
| 20-29 yards | 2,104 | 2,013 | 95.7% | Always attempt |
| 30-39 yards | 2,891 | 2,623 | 90.7% | Almost always attempt |
| 40-49 yards | 3,012 | 2,432 | 80.8% | Attempt with good kicker |
| 50-54 yards | 1,247 | 895 | 71.8% | Kontekstavhengig |
| 55-59 yards | 603 | 367 | 60.9% | Model expected value |
| 60+ yards | 142 | 67 | 47.2% | Elite kicker only |
Ofte stilte spørsmål
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Who is the most accurate kicker in NFL history?
Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens holds the highest career field goal percentage (approximately 91.1%) among kickers with 100+ attempts, ahead of Robbie Gould (~91%) and Chris Boswell. Tucker also holds the NFL record for longest successful field goal (66 yards in 2021), making him widely considered the greatest kicker of all time.
How far is too far for an NFL field goal?
The practical maximum for most NFL kickers is around 57-60 yards, where accuracy drops below 50% for average kickers. Elite kickers like Tucker have demonstrated the ability to make 65+ yarders, but as a decision-making threshold, most teams should not attempt kicks beyond 55 yards without exceptional weather conditions and a proven long-range kicker.
Does weather really affect field goal kicking?
Yes — significantly. Studies show that crosswinds above 15 mph reduce long field goal accuracy by 8-15 percentage points. Cold weather below 20°F (−6°C) adds another 3-5% penalty. Rain alone has a smaller effect than wind, but combined conditions (cold + wind + rain) on outdoor grass can reduce accuracy by 15-20 percentage points versus the same kick in a dome.
Why does the field goal attempt start 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage?
The standard snap distance for a field goal is 7-8 yards from center to holder, plus the holder is positioned slightly behind the snapper. The end zone adds 10 yards of depth to the goal posts. This is why the total kick distance is always approximately 17 yards more than the line of scrimmage — a field goal attempted from the 30-yard line is roughly a 47-yard kick.
What is the field goal probability at exactly 50 yards?
At exactly 50 yards, league-wide accuracy from 2018-2022 was approximately 71.8%. Elite kickers make 50-yarders at 80%+, while below-average kickers may be under 60%. Weather conditions can shift this range significantly — the same kick in a dome versus in a 20 mph crosswind carries roughly a 15-20 percentage point gap.
Should a team always kick a field goal when in range?
Not always — expected points analysis shows that in many 4th-and-short situations inside the opponent's 35, going for it can produce higher expected points than a nearly certain field goal, because the 7-point touchdown opportunity so dramatically outweighs the 3-point certainty of a make. This is situation-dependent and should be modeled case-by-case.
Vanlige feil å unngå
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- !Calculating field goal distance from the line of scrimmage without adding the standard 17-yard snap-to-goal-post constant — a ball at the opponent's 25 is a 42-yard kick, not a 25-yard kick.
- !Using the kicker's season-long accuracy as a single-point estimate rather than a range — a kicker who is 8-for-8 on 40-49 yard attempts is not definitively '100% accurate' at that range, as small sample sizes have enormous uncertainty.
- !Ignoring wind direction relative to kick direction — a 20 mph wind blowing at a 45-degree angle to the kick is a crosswind component of roughly 14 mph, very different from a direct headwind or tailwind at the same speed.
Pro Tips
Develop a kicker-specific probability curve rather than relying solely on league averages. If your kicker is 12-for-14 on 50+ yard attempts but 8-for-12 on 40-49 yard attempts, his personal accuracy curve differs from the league average in ways that should shift your decision thresholds by 3-5 yards in each direction.
Visste du?
Tom Dempsey kicked a 63-yard field goal in 1970 with a specially made kicking shoe (he was born with a stub foot), setting the NFL record that stood for 28 years. After the kick, the NFL actually created the 'Dempsey Rule' limiting custom kicking shoes — a remarkable case of a rule being written because of a single extraordinary achievement.
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