Draft day is easily one of the most exciting events on the NFL calendar. For fans, it represents hope, renewal, and the promise of a bright future. But when the commissioner steps up to the podium and announces, "We have a trade!" the excitement goes into overdrive.
Suddenly, your favorite team is swapping a package of this year's picks and next year's assets to move up a few spots. But how do you know if your team got a steal or got absolutely fleeced?
Welcome to the world of NFL draft pick value. NFL General Managers don't just guess when they make trades; they use highly calibrated mathematical models to evaluate the worth of every single pick. In this guide, we will break down how these draft value charts work, explore the most famous models, and show you how to calculate fair trades just like a professional front office.
Best of all, you don't need a degree in sports analytics to do this. With Calkulon's free NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator, you can plug in the numbers and get instant answers. Let's dive in!
What is NFL Draft Pick Value?
At its core, NFL draft pick value is a way of assigning a numerical "point" value to every single pick in the seven-round NFL Draft.
Think of it like a universal currency. If Team A has the 5th overall pick, they can't easily trade it for Team B's 15th overall pick straight up—that wouldn't be fair. To make the trade equal, Team B needs to throw in extra assets (like a second-round or third-round pick) to balance the scales.
By assigning a point value to every pick, GMs can add up the points on both sides of a potential trade. If the total points are relatively equal, you have a "fair trade." If there is a massive point gap, one team is giving up too much.
The History of Draft Value: The Jimmy Johnson Chart
To understand modern draft math, we have to go back to the early 1990s. Jimmy Johnson, the legendary head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, wanted a systematic way to value draft picks to help orchestrate his famous roster rebuild.
Along with business partner Mike McCoy, Johnson created the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart. This chart revolutionized the NFL and remains the baseline for draft trades today.
How the Jimmy Johnson Scale Works
Under the Jimmy Johnson model, draft picks are valued on an exponential curve:
- Pick #1 is the ultimate prize, valued at a whopping 3,000 points.
- The value drops quickly. By Pick #10, the value is 1,300 points.
- By the end of the first round, Pick #32 is worth 590 points.
- A mid-round pick, like Pick #100 (late 3rd round), is worth 100 points.
- Mr. Irrelevant (the final pick of the draft, around Pick #260) is worth just 1 point.
Because the drop-off at the top of the draft is so steep, trading into the top five is incredibly expensive. It requires a king's ransom of mid-and-late-round picks to match the point value of a single elite selection.
Modern Upgrades: The Rich Hill & Fitzgerald-Spielberger Models
While the Jimmy Johnson chart is still widely used, the game has changed since 1990. Modern sports analytics departments have developed updated models that reflect how teams actually value players today.
The Rich Hill Model
Created by analyst Rich Hill, this model updates Jimmy Johnson's classic chart to better align with modern trading patterns. It uses a slightly different point scale where Pick #1 is worth 1,000 points instead of 3,000. It simplifies the math but keeps a similar exponential curve, making it highly popular among modern NFL writers and front offices.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger Model (Over The Cap)
This model takes a completely different approach. Instead of looking at what GMs historically traded, it looks at the actual on-field value and contract savings that draft picks produce.
Because rookie contracts are capped, drafting a superstar on a cheap four-year deal is the most valuable thing in football. The Fitzgerald-Spielberger model argues that late first-round and second-round picks are actually undervalued by the Jimmy Johnson chart because they offer a much higher return on investment relative to their cost.
How to Calculate a Fair NFL Draft Trade (With Real Numbers)
Let's walk through a practical, real-world scenario using the classic Jimmy Johnson Chart to see how GMs negotiate.
Scenario: Trading Up into the Top 10
Imagine the Chicago Bears own the Pick #5 in the draft. The Pittsburgh Steelers desperately want to trade up from Pick #20 to grab a franchise quarterback before anyone else does.
Let's look at the math to see what a fair trade would look like.
- Identify the Target: Chicago's Pick #5 is worth 1,700 points.
- Identify the Starting Offer: Pittsburgh's Pick #20 is worth 850 points.
- Calculate the Value Differential: $$\text{Value Differential} = 1,700 - 850 = 850 \text{ points}$$
Pittsburgh needs to find another 850 points to make this trade fair. How can they do that?
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Option A: Add their 2nd and 3rd round picks. Pittsburgh offers Pick #20 (850 pts) + Pick #51 (390 pts) + Pick #84 (170 pts). Total Value offered: $850 + 390 + 170 = 1,410$ points. Verdict: Still short by 290 points! Chicago will say no.
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Option B: Add a future 1st-round pick. Typically, a future first-round pick is valued as a mid-round pick in the current year (usually around 500-600 points depending on where the team is projected to finish). If Pittsburgh offers Pick #20 (850 pts) + their 2nd round pick #51 (390 pts) + a future 1st rounder (valued at ~500 pts), the total comes to 1,740 points. Verdict: We have a deal! Chicago gets a slight premium for moving down, which is very common in draft-day trades.
Why You Should Use Calkulon's Draft Pick Value Calculator
Trying to calculate draft trades manually during the clock-ticking chaos of draft night is stressful. You have to find a PDF of the chart, look up each pick, write down the points, and do the mental math.
Calkulon makes it effortless and fun! With our free NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator, you can:
- Instantly calculate values: Just type in the pick numbers for Team A and Team B.
- See the exact differential: Our tool immediately tells you who is winning the trade and by how many points.
- Explore multiple models: Compare the classic Jimmy Johnson chart with modern analytics models to see which team gets the analytical edge.
- Design your own dream trades: Test out crazy mock draft scenarios for your favorite team in seconds.
Whether you are a casual fan watching the draft with friends, a fantasy football manager planning a rookie draft, or a sports writer drafting a mock article, Calkulon gives you professional-grade tools right at your fingertips.