Framingham Risk Калькулятор

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is the original and most historically influential cardiovascular risk prediction model. Developed by Wilson PWF and colleagues from data collected in Framingham, Massachusetts, and published in Circulation in 1998, it estimates the 10-year risk of developing a major cardiovascular disease (CVD) event — including angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, or coronary heart disease death — in adults aged 30 to 74 years who are free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease at baseline. The Framingham Heart Study, established in 1948 and now spanning three generations of participants, is one of the longest-running and most cited prospective cohort studies in medical history. It identified most of the classical cardiovascular risk factors now taken for granted: cigarette smoking, elevated blood pressure, high cholesterol, obesity, diabetes, and physical inactivity. The 1998 Framingham Risk Score formalised these observations into a practical clinical scoring tool. Although the Pooled Cohort Equations (ASCVD, 2013) and more recent models have largely replaced the Framingham Score in primary prevention guidelines in the United States, the FRS remains the foundation of cardiovascular risk assessment used in many countries — including Canada (where it is mandated in national guidelines), the United Kingdom (modified as the QRISK framework), and numerous other national health systems worldwide. It is particularly valued for its simplicity, its long track record, and the depth of the epidemiological evidence underpinning it. Understanding the Framingham Score is essential for any clinician working in cardiovascular medicine, as it provides the conceptual basis for all subsequent risk prediction models.

1. 1Step 1 — Establish eligibility: the patient must be aged 30–74 years with no known cardiovascular disease (no prior myocardial infarction, angina, coronary revascularisation, or stroke). The FRS is a primary prevention tool only.
2. 2Step 2 — Collect the required variables: age, sex, total cholesterol (mg/dL), HDL cholesterol (mg/dL), systolic blood pressure (mmHg), whether the patient is currently on antihypertensive medication, whether the patient is a current smoker, and whether the patient has diabetes.
3. 3Step 3 — Use the sex-specific point table to assign points for age. Points are awarded based on categorical ranges rather than continuous values; for example, in women, age 30–34 = −9 points and age 55–59 = +8 points, rising to +13 points for age 70–74.
4. 4Step 4 — Assign points for total cholesterol (higher cholesterol = more points) and HDL cholesterol (higher HDL = fewer or negative points, reflecting its protective effect). Each value is matched to a published age-specific categorical range.
5. 5Step 5 — Assign points for systolic blood pressure using the treated or untreated column as appropriate. Treated hypertension at a given SBP level carries more points than untreated, reflecting the higher baseline risk burden of patients requiring medication.
6. 6Step 6 — Add binary points for current smoking (+4 for men, +3 for women) and diabetes (+3 for men, +6 for women). Note that diabetes carries a larger risk contribution for women than men in the Framingham equations, consistent with data showing diabetes largely eliminates the female cardiovascular survival advantage.
7. 7Step 7 — Sum all category points, convert to 10-year CVD risk percentage using the published lookup table, and classify: Low <10%, Intermediate 10–20%, High >20%. Use the result in shared decision-making, noting that the FRS tends to overestimate risk in some contemporary populations and underestimate risk in South Asian and other high-risk ethnic groups not represented in the original cohort.